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Prediction for CME (2024-02-06T13:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-06T13:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29015/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is seen as a filament centered around N45E05 lifting off in SDO AIA 304 around 2024-02-06T09:33Z. Dimming can also be seen in SDO AIA 193 and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. | CME arrival note: Brief increases in B_total, temperature, and solar wind speed. Possible flux rope signatures are present in magnetic field parameters following arrival start time. Density increases prior to the arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-10T08:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-10T16:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Message id="435", Event id="385" 

SIDC URSIGRAM 40208
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Feb 2024, 1245UT

...

Coronal mass ejections: The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the
large filament eruption in the northern hemisphere on Feb 6th was
remodelled. A minor impact from it could be expected at Earth on Feb 10th
and Feb 11th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the
available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The above forecast supersedes the one below:

SIDC URSIGRAM 40207
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Feb 2024, 1258UT
...

Coronal mass ejections: A fast full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was
observed in the LASCO/C2 imagery starting after 12:00 UTC on Feb 6th. The
CME has no clear on-disc signatures and is deemed to be back-sided. No
impact on Earth is expected. A large filament eruption in the northern
hemisphere resulted in a northward CME launched at around the same time as
the back-sided halo CME. The bulk of this filament-related CME is heading
north and out of the Sun-Earth line. Yet, due to itâs wide spread and
central on-disc location a possible glancing blow could impact Earth late
UTC on Feb 8th or early on Feb 9th.

Lead Time: 40.92 hour(s)
Difference: -7.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-02-08T15:29Z

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